The last 6 months I have been asked by colleagues, friends and family, when will the crypto bear market end? When will we again see huge crypto rallies with 100% run for some of our favourite coins and have the feeling that we are “killing it” again.
That is the question to which everyone wants an answer, in this article i am analysing indicators and technical measures that can provide us some guidance.
We are in a bear market now; there is overwhelming technical evidence to show that both the US and European financial markets are in the bear phase of the full market cycle. It may even be that the market’s bottom has not yet been seen and that a mass capitulation phase could possibly be coming soon.
and so the next question is when will it all end? Interest rates. Both tech stocks and crypto are heavily down this year. The Nasdaq negative performance can be linked directly to the series of the Fed’s interest rates hikes currently taking place. Those hikes are hurting every risk-on asset including crypto. As the economy in the US and Europe is still growing despite the high inflation numbers, I expect that the Fed will continue raising rates at least till September this year. The US economy will eventually slow down by the end summer and may even enter into a short recession period. My guess is that the Fed will probably stop raising rates sometime after summer.
Commodity. The price of oil has growns almost 60% year to date. We may have reached the peak and may soon see lower pricing as countries are adjusting to the new geo-politics conditions, finding alternative suppliers to Russia for oil and other commodities. That said, a lot depends on the development on the Russia – Ukraine front and as long as the war continues, oil prices may not drop to the levels we have seen prior the war. One can estimate that the big battles in East Ukraine may end within 2 to 3 months and by then peace talks and some type of arrangements between the countries may be reached.
The stock market is usually good in anticipating when the worst is over by rallying. In 2008, coming out of a bear market, stock prices began to establish a series of higher highs and lows. More importantly, we began to see momentum and a more positive trend as well and moving averages slope upward.
Besides the above macro analysis, other factors that could trigger the next crypto bull run are the approval of a Bitcoin spot ETF, Ethereum’s switching to proof-of-stake, a positive settlement in the SEC- Ripple lawsuit, the approval of the “The Stablecoin TRUST Act “ in the US as well as the adoption of Bitcoin as a legal tender by more countries in latin America such as Mexico, Guatemala, Ukraine and Hondura
There are many indicators that can trigger positive momentums in the crypto market already at the end of Q3 beginning Q4. The many factors to consider require us to use sophisticated tools to trade emotionlessly. If you look for a crypto peace of mind, feel free to explore our algorithmic-based strategies that offer market protection during bear periods and strong returns during bull periods.
